Treasury Yields Flat as Traders Waffle on September Fed Hike
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- 10-year Treasury yield was little changed after weak retail sales data, per CNBC's headline coverage.
- Bond traders remain evenly split on a September Fed rate hike (a 'cointoss wager' per Bloomberg), while Investor's Business Daily reported rate-hike odds falling on what it called an 'Amazon Prime Day Effect' in the retail sales print.
Why it matters: Bloomberg's 'cointoss wager' framing shows the bond market genuinely cannot agree on the Fed's September move, and the Amazon Prime Day distortion flagged by Investor's Business Daily means the retail data the Fed reads may not reflect real consumer demand. That combination leaves traders pricing into the September meeting with no clear consensus direction.
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