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Wars Spread, Orders Crack
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expanding by accumulation — more participants, deeper targets, longer reach into NATO airspace. Around it, war memory has become an active foreign policy tool in capitals from Tokyo to Washington. The non-Western world is methodically redrawing its alignments while Washington turns tariffs into a geopolitical weapon.
The Russia-Ukraine war is widening along every axis at once. Kyiv's 600-drone strike on Moscow and Russia's retaliatory bombardment of Kyiv landed in the same cycle as NATO jets downing a drone over Romania and North Korea shipping more troops and missiles to the front. The list of legitimate targets is growing: Ukraine struck a Russian Starlink-style satellite network and drew direct missile retaliation. A civilian furniture designer is now fielding combat drones through unofficial channels. Each addition makes the war bigger and harder to cage.
War memory has become operational foreign policy. Takaichi's no-show at Yasukuni while her defence minister visited exposed how Tokyo calibrates every anniversary gesture against Beijing's reaction — China condemned the visit the same day. In Washington, House Speaker Mike Johnson led Netanyahu, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune in a Bible study framed around theological claims about Israel. Memory is no longer a backdrop; it is a lever.
The non-Western world is actively redrawing its ties. Iranian President Pezeshkian publicly congratulated Modi on India's 80th Independence Day, opening a diplomatic channel with New Delhi. Kim Jong Un's letter to Putin declared pride in DPRK-Russia ties as North Korean missiles killed civilians in Ukraine. South Korea's Lee proposed formal talks to end the Korean War, even as Pyongyang's constitutional stance treats Seoul as a hostile state. Each capital is making a separate, deliberate choice.
Trump is running two economic gears at once. Colombia's De la Espriella asked him to suspend tariffs after an earthquake while facing a $6.4 billion reconstruction bill and a rate hike from 10% to 12.5% — the US remains Colombia's top market. Thailand's shippers warned exporters about heightened US inspections under a transshipment report placing Bangkok alongside regional peers. Meanwhile, Trump pledged FEMA coordination after Indiana floods. Crisis management and economic coercion are now running on the same desk.
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Questions readers ask about geopolitics
Answered from SkimNews coverage · updated 2026-08-10
What happened in geopolitics this week?
The US launched self-defence strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, and Iran targeted Kuwait and Bahrain, while a bipartisan group of US Senators unveiled legislation imposing tariffs of up to 100% on India, China, and other countries for purchasing Russian oil. Additionally, Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire, and the US, Iran, and China engaged in diplomatic talks, with China offering to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and pledging not to arm Iran.
Where do things stand with Iran?
Iran's situation is complex, with its internal leadership fractured and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei functioning as a powerless figurehead, while the Revolutionary Guards have seized control. The country's command structures have been devolved to local levels, and it retains missile and drone manufacturing capacity, as well as ample stockpiles. Iran has been engaged in a war with the US and Israel, with the conflict spreading across separate proxy fronts, including Iranian military strikes, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and Saudi strikes. A potential deal to end the war has been discussed, with a focus on nuclear disarmament and maritime access, but the underlying regional power dynamics remain unaddressed.
What's the next flashpoint to watch?
The next flashpoint to watch is the Baltic region, particularly Poland, as US intelligence assessments indicate Putin could attempt a limited attack on a NATO ally within the next few years to test the alliance's Article 5 commitment. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that the coming months could be "critical" due to potential Russian provocation, citing US intelligence about a possible armed "provocation" to test NATO's resolve. Additionally, the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, as well as tensions in the Taiwan Strait, are also potential flashpoints that could escalate into wider regional conflicts.
What's happening between the US and China?
The US and China are engaging in a complex dance of cooperation and competition, with recent meetings between Trump and Xi aiming to establish a "constructive strategic and stable relationship." The two leaders have discussed setting informal "guardrails" to manage their rivalry, particularly in areas like technology and trade, while maintaining their massive economic interdependence. However, underlying structural factors, such as differing security interests and military modernization, remain unaddressed and continue to exert pressure on the relationship. The SkimNews take is that the codification of "guardrails" reflects an acceptance that economic interdependence alone is insufficient to prevent escalating competition between major powers.
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