Iran believes Israel will restart war before October elections
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- Iran's internal national security debate has converged over the past week on the assessment that Israel will restart the war before October elections, fueled by suspicion of Trump's intentions and heightened by JD Vance's remark that Trump wants to use the MOU to replenish global oil reserves and then 'see where the hand is.'
- The Israeli-Lebanese agreement permits Israeli forces to remain in parts of southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed — an outcome the article deems highly unlikely in the foreseeable future — giving Israel the northern-front advantage it lacked in the February conflict.
- Iran used only about 40 percent of its offensive capabilities against Israel in February and March because Hezbollah carried the remaining burden, stretching Israeli defenses across multiple fronts — a contribution the article says was sharply underestimated due to near-total Israeli military censorship, far stricter than the June 2025 regime.
- Netanyahu faces weaker-than-months reelection prospects, the political cost of the MOU, and the prospect of losing prime-ministerial immunity if he loses — exposing him to corruption charges — motivations Tehran reads as pushing him toward a renewed war.
- Tehran maps three US scenarios: the White House helped broker the Lebanese deal to facilitate Israel's war plans; Washington is unaware but would come to Israel's defense; or the administration is caught by surprise, does not restrain Israel, but stays out militarily.
- Suspicion of Secretary of State Marco Rubio runs particularly deep given his role brokering the Israeli-Lebanese agreement, his support for the war, and his perceived opposition to the MOU.
- Iranian officials remain confident they can impose severe costs on Israel, but the article argues a renewed war could still achieve Netanyahu's most immediate aim — killing the MOU — by forcing Trump to choose between the deal and backing Israel.
Why it matters: If Tehran's reading is correct, Netanyahu's personal legal exposure — potential corruption imprisonment if he loses the October elections — becomes the single largest threat to the MOU, since the Israeli-Lebanese deal gives Israel the military latitude to restart a war Iran used only 40 percent of its capabilities in last time. The MOU's survival may hinge on whether Trump actively restrains Netanyahu rather than merely reacting after the fact, a test the article says Trump has repeatedly failed.
