Variety Launches First Official Oscar Best Picture
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- Variety debuted its first official Oscar best picture charts with this first-half-of-2026 assessment, with the next update scheduled after the Venice and Telluride festivals
- Lionsgate's billion-dollar "Michael" and A24's "The Invite" (directed by Olivia Wilde) frame the source's central question: how much room the current Academy has for movies people actually went to see
- Taylor Swift and Jack Antonoff's "I Knew It, I Knew You" from "Toy Story 5" is the early Original Song frontrunner; a nomination would be Swift's first, leaving her one Tony shy of competitive EGOT status alongside Adele, Cher, Eminem and Lady Gaga
- John Williams, a 54-time Oscar nominee, is positioned as the Original Score frontrunner for Universal's "Disclosure Day"
- Penélope Cruz is the early Supporting Actress pick for "The Invite" as a sex therapist in Wilde's San Francisco ensemble with Seth Rogen and Edward Norton, in what the source calls a huge year that also includes Cannes prizewinner "La Bola Negra" heading to Netflix
- Ivy Meeropol's "Ask E. Jean" documentary, sitting at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, leads Documentary Feature, with the source flagging renewed relevance from Trump-related headlines
- A "Star Wars" film has never missed a Visual Effects nomination, per the source, making "The Mandalorian and Grogu" the early frontrunner despite softer box office
Why it matters: Variety formalizing its first official best picture charts reframes a six-month awards season whose central tension — billion-dollar "Michael" versus critics' favorite "The Invite" — will decide whether Taylor Swift lands her first Oscar nomination and closes in on a competitive EGOT, and whether the Academy validates commercial muscle alongside craft.
