2026 Rams Top Super Bowl Odds — History Says Beware
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- 2026 Los Angeles Rams opened at +550 to win Super Bowl LXI at DraftKings, an implied 12.5% probability and a 5.1-percentage-point lead over the Bills and Ravens, after trading for Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, drafting Ty Simpson, and sending Jared Verse plus three picks to Cleveland for reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett
- 2017 New England Patriots entered as 19.8% favorites (11.5-point gap over the field), went 13-3 for the AFC's No. 1 seed, and lost Super Bowl LII 41-33 to the Eagles — Tom Brady's 505-yard, three-touchdown performance came in a losing effort and the defense finished 31st in DVOA
- 2007 New England Patriots carried 20.9% implied odds (10.5-point gap) and went 16-0 in the regular season, but were upset 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII by a Giants pass rush that controlled Brady in the pocket
- 1996 San Francisco 49ers checked in at 19.2% implied odds (9.6-point gap) as a three-time defending NFC favorite, but lost 35-14 in the divisional round to the Packers after Steve Young exited with two broken ribs
- 2002 St. Louis Rams held 15.7% implied odds (7.8-point gap) coming off a Super Bowl loss and missed the playoffs entirely — Kurt Warner played seven games with 11 interceptions against three touchdowns, while All-Pros Aeneas Williams and Orlando Pace combined to miss 16 games
- 2025 ESPN prediction panel saw none of 68 personalities pick the Seahawks or Patriots as conference champs or Super Bowl winners, and preseason favorites like the Chiefs, Lions and Commanders all missed the postseason
- Barnwell's survey covers 16 teams total (15 from 1990-2025 plus the 2026 Rams), built from Pro Football Reference preseason odds and current DraftKings lines
Why it matters: The early returns on Barnwell's 16-team autopsy are damning for heavily favored superteams: 0-for-4 across the cases examined so far, with the 2007 and 2017 Patriots losing the Super Bowl, the 1996 49ers losing in the divisional round, and the 2002 Rams missing the playoffs altogether. With the Rams priced as 5.1 percentage points clearer favorites than anyone else in the league, the article is implicitly arguing that markets systematically overrate offseason roster aggression in a sport where injuries, playoff variance and single-game volatility routinely punish the preseason darlings.
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