Saudi Public Split on Iran Strikes Despite US Alliance
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- Saudi Arabia has reportedly carried out covert airstrikes on Iranian soil in May, a significant departure from its traditional reliance on the US security umbrella, while publicly maintaining a posture of restraint.
- Political scientists Robert Kubinec and Alexis Montambault-Trudelle have been polling Saudi nationals since March 2026 using a custom social media targeting platform and Bayesian adjustment, collecting 300+ responses across all Saudi regions — a rare data source inside the authoritarian kingdom.
- US alliance support holds firm: roughly three-quarters of respondents agree or strongly agree Saudi Arabia should have a stronger US relationship, even though the surveys were conducted after the February 28 US attacks on Iran.
- Military action against Iran is nearly split: 49% of Saudi respondents support strikes on Iranian missile launch sites while 51% oppose them, with support highest among middle-age Saudis (61%) versus 45% of young Saudis, and 54% of men versus 43% of women.
- Polarization remains soft: only 15% strongly support military action and 16% strongly oppose it, with most respondents clustering uneasily in the middle and apparently distinguishing between strategic US security commitments and support for further escalation.
- Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman privately urged President Donald Trump to continue military pressure on Iran, framing the conflict as a 'historic opportunity,' according to media reports — a stance the authors say helps explain the gap between public restraint and reported covert action.
Why it matters: Polling inside an authoritarian kingdom where surveys are rare reveals a real domestic ceiling for escalation: 51% of Saudis oppose strikes on Iran even as MBS privately pushes Trump to keep up military pressure. That tension constrains how far Riyadh can publicly align with the war effort without absorbing political costs at home.
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