Bitcoin could face deeper downside as odds of U.S. market meltdown rise to 35%
Why it matters: Higher crash odds could shock risk assets; Bitcoin’s limited hedge value means investors may need new protection strategies.
- Bitcoin trades near $67,378, flat on the week while equities plunge and volatility spikes.
- Ed Yardeni raises the probability of a U.S. market melt‑down to 35% (up from 20%) and cuts melt‑up odds to 5%, citing oil‑price shock and a strong dollar.
- NYDIG research shows roughly 25% of Bitcoin’s price moves correlate with U.S. equities, with the remaining 75% driven by crypto‑specific factors.
- Oil prices above $100 and a robust dollar intensify inflation and unemployment risk, fueling broader risk‑off sentiment.
- VIX hits its highest level since April, and S&P 500 futures fall >2% in Asian trading, underscoring market stress.
Bitcoin is hovering around $67k000 even as global equities tumble, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni lifts the odds of a U.S. market crash to 35%, and NYDIG finds only about a quarter of Bitcoin’s price swings linked to stocks, highlighting strong crypto‑specific drivers.
