SpaceX Closes Below $148 IPO Debut Price
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- SpaceX closed at $148.26 on Wednesday, down 0.8%, after falling 6.8% Tuesday when it was added to the Nasdaq-100 Index, slipping below its IPO debut price
- Wall Street analysts launched coverage with 14 Buy ratings and an average price target near $260, valuing SpaceX at roughly $3.4 trillion — described as 'an Exxon Mobil more than Microsoft'
- Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas set the highest mainstream target at $300, using a 15-year DCF model projecting $3.3 trillion in 2040 sales and $2.7 trillion in Ebitda across Space, Starlink, and AI segments
- Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu built a sum-of-the-parts valuation landing at $255 per share, pricing the AI business at $1.2T (5x 2034 sales), Starlink at $1T (58x 2027 Ebitda), and space launch at $1.1T
- RBC's Ken Herbert took a more conservative $225 target using 2029 Ebitda multiples, while BofA's Ron Epstein pegged SpaceX at $235, tying the thesis to Starship's potential 90% cost reduction
- Raymond James' Brian Gesuale issued the outlier $800 target — north of $10 trillion — based on a 27x 2031 Ebitda multiple, arguing Starship is 'the defining industrial innovation of our generation'
Why it matters: The $225-to-$800 spread among sell-side targets reflects how few real-world comps exist for a company blending launch services, satellite broadband, and AI infrastructure — Raymond James's 27x Ebitda multiple is roughly 70% richer than Alphabet's current ~16x. For investors, the gap means SpaceX's post-IPO trajectory will hinge less on fundamentals visible today and more on Starship execution and Starlink monetization timelines through 2031.
