Trump’s trade war with China in focus ahead of May summit
Why it matters: The May summit will determine the immediate future of trade relations between the US and China, impacting global supply chains and specific industries.
- US President Donald Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, marking Trump's first visit to China in eight years amidst ongoing trade tensions.
- The US launched new Section 301 unfair-trade probes into Chinese industries in March, prompting China to respond with reciprocal investigations.
- The US Supreme Court rejected Trump’s global tariff regime in February, though Trump indicated he would continue to use tariffs.
- China ended 2025 with a record trade surplus, likely benefiting from redirecting trade to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America as exports to the US declined.
- China expanded export controls on rare earth elements and increased scrutiny on semiconductor users in October 2025, while the US imposed additional duties and export controls on critical software and targeted the shipping industries of both countries.
- Trump and Xi agreed to a new trade truce in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025, with the US trimming tariffs and Beijing agreeing to target fentanyl, resume soybean purchases, and pause rare earth export curbs.
- The US pushed for discussions on TikTok divestiture and trade in chemicals, aircraft engines, and parts with China in September 2025.
- The US began issuing licenses to Nvidia for advanced AI chip exports to China, and Trump urged China to quadruple US soybean purchases, extending a tariff truce for another 90 days in mid-2025.
President Trump's upcoming May summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping marks a critical juncture in a trade war characterized by escalating tariffs, retaliatory probes, and a series of fragile truces. Despite a Supreme Court rejection of his global tariff regime, Trump remains committed to using tariffs, while China has strategically redirected trade and expanded critical mineral export controls, creating a complex economic standoff.
