Bitcoin Breaks $64K as Death Cross Keeps Trend Bearish
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- Bitcoin broke above $64K resistance Tuesday, tagging a daily high of $65,511 before settling at $64,858—flat on the day, down 0.18%—after being turned away at the level for roughly two weeks.
- The death cross remains intact with no gap-closing signal: the 50-day moving average trades below the 200-day, and BTC sits only ~5% above the descending trend channel from May highs near $82,000—a slip re-activates the confirmed downtrend.
- Bullish macro winds: June PPI fell 0.3% month-over-month (below expectations), pushing CME FedWatch odds of a July Fed rate hike from 31% last week to 12.3%; S&P 500 gained 0.39%, Nasdaq climbed 0.67%, and VIX fell to 16.5.
- Technical momentum is rotating: ADX at 23.4 is transitioning from Di- (bearish) to Di+ (bullish dominance), RSI sits at 55.7, and the Squeeze Momentum Indicator is off but rising at 1.75—compression before a sharp move, with no direction label.
- Fibonacci resistance places BTC squarely at the 100% level of a bearish leg that ran $64,657 down to $61,246—an area where sellers historically re-emerge after recovery moves.
- Myriad prediction market traders are pricing 66.6% odds that Bitcoin dumps to $55K before revisiting $84K—roughly 2-to-1 against the bulls—with the odds unchanged despite the breakout, a lean the source notes has recently out-called chart optimists.
Why it matters: Bitcoin trades within roughly 5% of re-entering its descending channel, a level that would re-confirm the death-cross-driven downtrend; meanwhile, 66.6% Myriad odds on a slide to $55K show prediction-market participants aren't buying the breakout despite a supportive macro setup (PPI miss, 12.3% July hike odds). If BTC loses $64K, the Fibonacci resistance at the 100% retracement marks where sellers typically re-load.
