How war on Iran turned Pakistan’s LNG surplus into a looming shortage
Why it matters: Pakistan faces a looming gas shortage as its primary LNG suppliers, Qatar and the UAE, are impacted by regional conflict.
- Pakistan began the year with an LNG surplus, selling excess shipments and shutting down domestic wells due to falling demand from 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025.
- The United States and Israel launched 'Epic Fury' on February 28, striking Iranian military infrastructure and killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks, significantly disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and targeting Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City and its own South Pars gas field.
- Qatar halted all LNG production and declared force majeure after its Ras Laffan facilities were hit, with QatarEnergy later reporting a 17 percent production cut and a five-year repair timeline.
- Global energy markets saw Brent crude climb to over $109 a barrel and European gas prices jump 6 percent in a single session following the attacks on major gas fields.
Pakistan, initially facing an LNG surplus due to falling demand and increased solar adoption, is now on the brink of a severe gas shortage after the US-Israeli 'Epic Fury' operation against Iran triggered widespread regional conflict. Iranian retaliatory strikes crippled Qatar's Ras Laffan and Iran's South Pars gas fields, critical global LNG sources, halting production and jeopardizing Pakistan's energy supply which relies heavily on imports from Qatar and the UAE.
