US, Iran to Sign Interim Nuclear Deal Friday
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- US and Iran reached an interim deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a signing planned for Friday in Switzerland, though final terms remained in dispute Monday and previous announcements had fallen through
- Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear agreement on May 8, 2018, calling it the 'worst deal ever,' after which Iran progressively backed away from the accord and enriched uranium to 60% purity by April 2021
- Israel launched a 12-day war against Iran beginning June 13, 2025, hitting nuclear and military sites; the US joined on June 22 by attacking three Iranian nuclear sites, and Iran retaliated by targeting a US base in Qatar before a ceasefire was announced June 24
- France, Germany and the UK triggered the snapback process in August 2025, and the UN reimposed full sanctions on Iran on September 28 after the Security Council rejected China and Russia's last-minute effort to block them
- Mass protests erupted across Iran in January 2026 after the rial plunged to a record 1.42 million per US dollar; a security force crackdown killed thousands and saw tens of thousands detained, with internet cut off
- Trump deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group to the Middle East in late January 2026 after calling off meetings with Iran, and a US Navy fighter shot down an Iranian drone approaching the carrier in the Arabian Sea on February 3, 2026
Why it matters: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would restore a critical corridor for global oil shipments disrupted since the June 2025 Israel-Iran war, but the deal's fragility is underscored by the September 2025 reimposition of UN snapback sanctions and Iran's January 2026 crackdown on mass protests that killed thousands — a volatile backdrop for any 'interim' agreement.




