Putin Wants to Avoid NATO War, Officials Say
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- Western officials assess that Vladimir Putin wants to avoid direct military confrontation with NATO despite hostile rhetoric toward the UK and allies over Ukraine support, with US President Donald Trump saying this week that "he's not going to attack a Nato territory."
- CIA chief John Radcliffe visited Moscow this week, in part to warn Russia against a possible attack on a member of the Euro-Atlantic military alliance.
- Russia's warnings that UK forces could be targeted and weapons factories hit are "nothing new" and consistent with its military doctrine of applying pressure on the West, the officials said.
- The hostile rhetoric reflects growing domestic pressure on Putin from slow, costly gains in Ukraine and Ukrainian long-range strikes deep inside Russia, according to the officials.
- Russia is expected to continue "hybrid activity" short of direct military action — cyber-attacks, sabotage and assassination attempts — aimed at breaking Western resolve on Ukraine, with one official warning the strategy risks miscalculation that could spark military confrontation.
- A drone loaded with explosives reached Leipzig airport in Germany earlier this month, a key logistics hub for transferring military equipment to Ukraine, though Russia has denied involvement; France's security services chief subsequently warned of "direct, more violent hostile actions on our national soil."
- Russia is losing 6,000 more soldiers a month than it can recruit and petrol shortages are affecting domestic support for the war, though officials see no sign Putin will resort to mass mobilisation.
Why it matters: The gap between Putin's bellicose rhetoric and his strategic restraint tells NATO allies the real threat is not a conventional Article 5 attack but a steady drumbeat of hybrid operations — and with Russia losing 6,000 troops a month more than it can replace, the pressure on Putin to project strength at home without triggering NATO response is intensifying.
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