Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok at highest heat risk amid rising El Nino concerns: Oxford University study
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- Oxford University published "A globally comparable framework for heat risk assessment in cities" (2026), ranking Ho Chi Minh City first, Bangkok second, and Samut Prakan third in global heat risk, driven by humidity, urban heat island effects, rapid urban growth, population density, and large outdoor workforces.
- The three highest-risk cities are major economic zones in low-lying coastal areas, making them simultaneously vulnerable to heatwaves and flooding.
- Researchers warned that a potential super El Nino in 2026 could bring prolonged drought, reduced rainfall, water shortages, agricultural losses, food security threats, and major wildfires to Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea.
- Scientists detected unusually high Pacific sea-surface temperatures and warned that a super El Nino could make 2027 the hottest year on record, while also raising risks of coral bleaching and more intense typhoons.
- Thailand has begun preparing water-management measures after forecasts suggested El Nino-driven low-water conditions could continue into 2027.
- Experts stressed that forecasts remain uncertain and urged urgent planning for water management, drought preparedness, and heatwave response across the region.
Why it matters: The study pinpoints the world's hottest-risk cities by combining humidity, density, and outdoor-labor exposure — not just temperature — meaning mitigation must address working conditions and urban planning, not only climate. With Thailand already activating water-management plans and 2027 potentially becoming the hottest year on record, governments in Vietnam, Thailand, and across ASEAN face a concrete planning window before a possible super El Nino compounds existing vulnerabilities in coastal economic hubs.
