U.S., Iran return to war over Strait of Hormuz control
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- U.S. declared the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of (Mis)Understanding over and conducted strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets, citing Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and refusal to allow uncoordinated shipping passage.
- Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, asserting its right to control all maritime transit under its interpretation of Paragraph 5 of the MOU, viewing U.S. escort operations and Omani corridor plans as efforts to erode its strategic leverage.
- Oman advanced a proposal for separate management of northern and southern shipping corridors through the Strait, which Tehran rejected as a U.S.-backed effort to institutionalize a route outside Iranian control, despite Muscat’s prior support for joint management.
- Qatar proposed a three-corridor solution for the Strait—northern (Iranian), southern (Omani), and central (neutral)—but the plan failed to gain traction as Iran saw it as restoring the pre-February status quo it had already rejected.
- Iranian strategists became convinced the U.S. intended to restart war, citing Trump’s 'scum' rhetoric, the Lebanon-Israel deal undermining Iran’s regional position, and leaks demanding Iran declare the Strait open and assume responsibility for attacks on shipping.
- U.S. officials claim negotiations collapsed only after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was overruled by IRGC hardliners following a proposed joint statement with Oman declaring the Strait open, suggesting internal Iranian resistance to compromise.
Why it matters: The U.S. enters renewed conflict with weaker oil inventories—down 96 million barrels onshore and relying heavily on emergency stock releases—while facing a four-month window before midterm elections, sharply limiting its tolerance for prolonged economic disruption from higher fuel prices and inflation.
