Aging Researchers Cite Work, Slowing Breakthroughs
SkimNews Take
The increasing age of researchers, combined with the preference for older citations and established peer reviewers, creates a self-reinforcing cycle that inadvertently stifles novel research.
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- Science: The study examined 12.5 million scientists who published at least three papers between 1960 and 2020, finding that average citation age rises from 7.9 years early in careers to 10.1 years after 40 years.
- Russell Funk noted that the aging effect joins other drivers of the persistent decline in disruptive science, such as knowledge overload and larger team sizes.
- James Evans explained that older researchers have “the most to lose and the least to gain” from novel ideas, while younger scientists have the opposite incentive structure.
- Preprint versions of papers cite more recent work than the final peer‑reviewed versions, a gap that widens in fields with older reviewers.
- Younger corresponding authors are more likely to produce papers that break new ground, whereas older lead authors tend to connect existing ideas.
Why it matters: Research funders risk reduced returns on billions of dollars invested in R&D because the 12.5 million scientists studied increasingly cite older work, slowing breakthrough discoveries and weakening the innovation pipeline.
