Stocks Rise as Weak Jobs Data Fuels Fed Hold Bets
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- Stock futures were mixed Friday ahead of the July jobs report, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.45%, S&P 500 futures up 0.15%, and Dow Jones futures flat.
- The Dow fell 460 points (0.9%) Thursday, ending a five-day winning run, while the S&P 500 slid 0.2% and Nasdaq dipped 0.1% as oil prices rose.
- Airbnb rallied 8%+ in premarket after beating top and bottom lines, while Cloudflare surged 16% after issuing a solid full-year and current-quarter outlook.
- July nonfarm payrolls are expected to show a gain of just 83,000 with unemployment steady at 4.2%, a print that traders believe could keep the Fed from cutting.
- The Nasdaq is on track for its best week since May, powered by a 5%+ rebound in the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX).
- Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC's 'Closing Bell' the S&P 500 will chase toward 7,900–8,000 this month.
Why it matters: A July payrolls print of just 83,000 — below trend — would give the Federal Reserve cover to maintain its patient stance, easing recession fears while preserving the case for eventual cuts. With the semiconductor ETF up 5%+ on the week and a major Wall Street strategist publicly targeting 7,900–8,000 on the S&P 500, the market is pricing a soft-landing path rather than a hard slowdown.
