FTI Warns Thai EV Sector Faces Chinese Import Surge
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- Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) warned that the EV3.5 incentive programme's 2027 expiration could push automakers to import Chinese BEVs rather than produce locally, citing the 0% import duty under the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement
- EV3.5 runs from 2024 to 2027, offering tax cuts and subsidies to automakers in exchange for investment in battery electric vehicle assembly plants in Thailand
- Suwat Supakandechakul, newly appointed chairman of the FTI's Automotive Industry Club, said the government must prepare additional measures to sustain the sector once incentives end
- Thai pickup sales have fallen from 300,000–350,000 units annually to 140,000–150,000, driven by tighter bank lending, high household debt, and shifting consumer preferences, severely disrupting local parts suppliers
- Thailand's production mix has reversed: pickups that once accounted for 60% of total vehicle output now make up 40%, with passenger cars (driven largely by Chinese BEV factories) rising to 60%
- FTI urged the government to launch a car trade-in programme to boost EV adoption, but an anonymous Finance Ministry official said the project may be shelved over unresolved questions on vehicle age, used-car valuation, and disposal
- Thailand's car manufacturing peaked at 2.45 million units in 2013, with the FTI projecting output of 1.5 million units in 2026
Why it matters: Thailand built its auto industry on pickups, and the FTI is now watching the EV transition simultaneously hollow out that base (sales halved) and create a new dependency on Chinese BEV plants that could turn into import competitors the moment subsidies expire in 2027, leaving local supply chains exposed on two fronts at once.
