Cantor sees bitcoin bottom by late October, eyes revenue-driven tokens
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Cantor Fitzgerald said bitcoin is in the late stages of its current bear cycle, with analysts writing that the market is 'only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback' — a bottom that historical cycle patterns could place around late October.
- As of June 10, bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak and down about 51%, while across the previous three market cycles, BTC bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking, per analyst Gareth Gacetta's Tuesday note.
- Cantor called on investors to shift focus from speculative activity to networks that translate usage into durable token demand, arguing that long-term winners must convert activity into sustainable cash flow or lasting monetary demand.
- Hyperliquid was named the clearest example of fee-driven token economics via HYPE buybacks and burns, with bitcoin positioned as the benchmark monetary asset and Ethereum as the dominant collateral layer for onchain finance.
- Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each have differentiated strengths, Cantor said, but still need to prove they can convert ecosystem growth into durable token demand.
- Cantor initiated coverage on digital asset treasury companies Forward Industries (FWDI) and Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH) with overweight ratings and price targets of $7.90 and $0.90, respectively, framing DAT firms as evolving from passive holders into active operators bridging TradFi and crypto.
- The bank cautioned that the 384-day average is not a precise timing tool given macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical risks, but noted crypto's reflexive nature means historical cycles can become self-reinforcing.
Why it matters: Bitcoin holders nursing a 51% drawdown from the 2025 peak now have a Wall Street-issued timeline: if the 384-day historical average holds, the bottom could arrive around late October, roughly four to five months out. Cantor is also effectively telling investors to stop buying speculative tokens and start underwriting the ones with cash-flow mechanics — making the run-up to that October window the positioning period for HYPE, the blue-chip L1s it endorsed, and the newly initiated DAT names Forward Industries ($7.90 PT) and Cypherpunk Technologies ($0.90 PT).
