Solar PV Capex could fall to $192/kW by 2050
Why it matters: Solar PV Capex falling to $192/kW by 2050 could accelerate global electricity generation by renewables.
- Finland's LUT University predicts solar PV Capex could range from $192/kW to $720/kW by 2050, with the lower figure representing 2019 nominal values adjusted for inflation.
- Christian Breyer, professor at LUT University, clarified that all cost values prior to 2022 were adjusted by 20% for inflation, explaining the difference between the $192/kW and $720/kW figures.
- Co-author Dennis Bredemeier noted that assumptions about solar PV are frequently pessimistic, and energy system modeling results can be significantly impacted by insufficient spatial or temporal resolution.
- The researchers conducted a systematic literature review of 60 studies, finding that lower solar PV Capex assumptions generally lead to higher projected deployment in global energy mixes.
- Most studies reviewed indicate that solar PV and wind together will supply between 80% and 100% of electricity generation by 2050, excluding nuclear power.
A new study by Finland's LUT University projects that solar photovoltaic (PV) capital expenditure (Capex) could dramatically fall to as low as $192/kW by 2050, a figure adjusted for inflation from 2019 nominal values. The research, which reviewed 60 studies on renewable energy transition, highlights that pessimistic assumptions and insufficient modeling resolution often underestimate solar PV's role, despite most studies converging on PV and wind supplying 80-100% of electricity by mid-century.
