Trump Holds Leverage Over Netanyahu Ahead of Israeli Election
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- Netanyahu trails in polls with his coalition of right-wing, religious, and ultra-nationalist parties at risk of falling short of a parliamentary majority, and losing power would end his ability to influence the justice system trying him on bribery, fraud, and breach of trust charges.
- Trump said this week it's "most appropriate to stay out of Israeli elections, but I may endorse somebody" — passing up multiple opportunities to champion the Israeli leader despite personal affinity, and leaving a potential endorsement dangling as leverage.
- Trump is reportedly frustrated that Netanyahu oversold a U.S.-Israeli victory in the Iran war and won't accept what Trump's Board of Peace has decided for Gaza — what the authors call "a Netanyahu problem" exacerbated by Netanyahu's pushback on both crises.
- Jared Kushner recently concluded meetings in Cairo with Hamas and in Israel with Netanyahu on the Gaza demilitarization plan, giving Trump transactional leverage to demand Gaza concessions as a condition for an open endorsement.
- Vice President JD Vance has "lost patience with Netanyahu" and opposes Trump's Middle East focus and foreign aid, complicating any major endorsement gesture such as a new 10-year military assistance memorandum or a pre-election White House visit.
- The Israeli opposition has reportedly sent messages to Trump's inner circle discouraging a Netanyahu endorsement — and the most likely outcome is Trump doing "the absolute minimum" while reserving the right to claim credit if Netanyahu wins and blame him if he loses.
Why it matters: Netanyahu faces trial on bribery, fraud, and breach of trust if his coalition loses the election, while Trump holds a rare structural advantage — personal popularity in Israel plus a Gaza deal on the table — that lets him extract policy concessions or simply wait to claim credit if Netanyahu wins and blame Netanyahu if he doesn't.
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