Trump threatens NATO exit, alliance stays resilient
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- Trump warned he was "absolutely" considering withdrawing from NATO after allies refused to join the American‑Israeli campaign against Iran, and posted on Truth Social that NATO "wasn't there when we needed them."
- Mark Rutte met with Trump and said the alliance remains an important partner for the United States despite the president’s criticism.
- Kerry Buck warned that Trump’s rhetoric erodes trust and emboldens Russia, which this week tested NATO by placing submarines over transatlantic cables off the United Kingdom.
- Congress would need to approve any U.S. withdrawal, as a 2023 law requires a two‑thirds Senate majority and a 180‑day notice period for a formal exit.
- IISS estimated Europe would need roughly $1 trillion and 128,000 troops, plus space‑based ISR and command assets, to replace U.S. capabilities if Washington left NATO.
- Pew Research Center found 66 % of Americans support NATO membership, yet Republican support has slipped below 50 % for the first time.
- Russia tested NATO by deploying submarines near transatlantic cables, exploiting perceived alliance weakness amid U.S. political friction.
Why it matters: European nations would bear the brunt of any U.S. pullout, facing a $1 trillion cost and loss of U.S. troops, space‑based ISR and command assets, while Russia could exploit the perceived weakness to test NATO’s deterrence, and U.S. political factions risk losing strategic influence within the alliance.
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