Oil jumps after Trump declares Iran ceasefire 'over'
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- Oil prices climbed Wednesday morning after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" but said negotiations — which he called a "waste of time" — can continue, pushing global benchmark Brent crude to $77.53 per barrel, about $5 above where the week began.
- The U.S. conducted a new round of strikes on Iran in retaliation for renewed Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Axios reporting.
- The Treasury Department announced Tuesday that it revoked the temporary waivers issued under the Iran MOU that had allowed Tehran to sell oil, though Bloomberg's Javier Blas noted the move still permits significant Iranian sales.
- ING analysts said the waiver revocation is important from a "sentiment perspective" by showing the U.S.-Iran agreement may break down, but "doesn't fundamentally change oil market dynamics."
- Rystad Energy warned that uncertainty around vessel safety, insurance costs, potential delays, and retaliation risk is "likely to keep volatility elevated" even if no sustained physical disruption materializes.
- Axios analysis noted the current spike is sharp but nowhere near spring levels when Brent briefly touched $126 in April, and that substantial tanker volumes have flowed out of the region recently, improving market balances.
- U.S. gasoline prices, which have been falling for weeks, could start rising anew if the oil price increase sustains.
Why it matters: The roughly $5 weekly jump in Brent crude represents a real geopolitical risk premium but falls well short of the $126 April peak, meaning traders are pricing disruption — not a full Hormuz closure or regional production cuts. The most concrete consumer consequence: weeks of declining U.S. gasoline prices at the pump could reverse if this move holds.
