Brent Crude Jumps $5 as Trump Calls Iran Ceasefire 'Over'
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- Brent crude climbed to $77.53 per barrel Wednesday morning, roughly $5 above where it began the week, after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire 'over' and called negotiations a 'waste of time.'
- The U.S. conducted a new round of strikes on Iran in retaliation for renewed Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the backdrop for Trump's ceasefire comments.
- The Treasury Department revoked the temporary oil-sale waivers issued under the June MOU with Iran on Tuesday, though ING analysts said the move 'doesn't fundamentally change oil market dynamics' and matters more for sentiment.
- Rystad Energy warned that uncertainty around vessel safety, insurance costs, and retaliation risk 'is likely to keep volatility elevated in the near term,' even without a sustained physical disruption to tanker traffic.
- Despite the jump, Brent crude remains far below April levels when it briefly touched $126, and substantial volumes of oil have flowed out of the region in recent weeks, suggesting the market isn't pricing a full re-escalation or prolonged Strait closure.
- U.S. gasoline prices, which have been falling for weeks, could start rising again if the oil price increase proves sustained.
Why it matters: The $5 jump reflects market sentiment, not fundamentals — ING notes the waiver revocation doesn't materially alter oil dynamics, and prices remain well below April's $126 peak. But with Rystad warning of elevated volatility from insurance and security costs, falling U.S. gasoline prices could reverse if Strait tensions sustain.
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