Russia Fuel Crisis Hits 35% of Population
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- Financial Times analysis finds Russia's fuel crisis directly touches about 50 million people, or 35% of the population, based on the number of motorists per region.
- Russian oil refineries have lost 20–40% of capacity from Ukrainian drone strikes, making this the worst fuel crisis since the late Soviet era, per FT.
- Russia processed 4.1 million barrels per day in June — 28% below the five-year average and 35% below designed capacity, according to Kyiv School of Economics researcher Boris Dodonov.
- Carnegie senior fellow Sergey Vakulenko confirmed "the crisis is real, people feel it," but noted it has not yet triggered large-scale economic consequences.
- Six Russian regions have moved or plan to move to license-plate-based fuel sales — even-numbered plates buy on even days, odd on odd days — to shorten lines where residents wait hours or even entire days at the pump.
- All of Russia's largest oil refineries have been struck by Ukrainian drones, compounding the supply shortage behind the rationing measures.
Why it matters: With 35% of Russians — essentially every motorist — directly feeling fuel shortages and refining running 35% below designed capacity, the Kremlin has resorted to administrative rationing by license-plate number, a Soviet-style fix for what FT calls a Soviet-scale crisis. The gap between public pain (hours-long queues) and Vakulenko's note that economic consequences remain limited suggests demand destruction rather than broader macroeconomic fallout so far.
