Bitcoin Is Pumping But Prediction Market Traders Aren't Convinced
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- Bitcoin traded at $71,556 on Thursday, up 3.26%, extending Wednesday's 8.7% rally — the sharpest one-day jump since March 4 and the highest price since June 1
- Myriad's "$84K or $55K" market flipped from roughly 70% favoring a dump days earlier to a near 50-50 split (52% bullish, 48% bearish) as the rally squeezed bearish bettors
- Polymarket's 2026 year-end market still priced a 56% chance BTC touches $55,000 before year-end and just 51% odds of a run to $75,000 — barely budging on the rally
- Kalshi gave BTC only a 54% shot at clearing $67,500 in August and 31% at $70,000 — both thresholds the rally blew through on Wednesday, wiping out near-term bearish positions
- The article notes the Myriad flip reflects who got caught blindsided rather than a genuine sentiment shift, as near-term markets got squeezed while year-end contracts stayed anchored to bearish odds
- Bitcoin's next line in the sand sits at $70,284 resistance; a daily close above opens room toward $73,245, while losing $68,000 drags it back into the range that has trapped it since June
Why it matters: Near-term prediction market contracts priced for BTC below $67,500 got crushed by Wednesday's 8.7% rally, but year-end markets on Polymarket and Kalshi barely moved — suggesting longer-horizon bettors still view this as a bear-market bounce rather than a sustained breakout. A close above $70,284 opens a path to $73,245; failure to hold $68,000 keeps BTC trapped in the same compressive wedge that preceded prior crashes.
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