Gold, Silver Crash 24% and 47% From January Peaks
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Gold and silver have fallen roughly 24% and 47% in US dollar terms since their late-January peak, with smaller declines in rupee terms (17% and 40%) because India's higher import duty inflated import costs.
- Gold peaked at $5,405/oz on 29 January and dropped to $4,001.80 by 25 June; in India, prices slid from ₹1,76,274 to ₹1,39,701 per 10 grams over the same span.
- Surendra Mehta of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association attributes the decline to three factors: expected US Federal Reserve rate hikes, a stronger US dollar, and central banks reducing their pace of gold buying.
- World Gold Council data shows investors bought a record $89 billion in gold ETFs in 2025, while analysts like JP Morgan projected prices climbing to $6,000–$12,000/oz before the reversal.
- Rohit Talwar, a 47-year-old Ahmedabad resident, said his mother bought 1kg of silver bars at ~₹1,47,000/kg but their local jeweller refused to buy them back when prices doubled, citing market volatility.
- Manish Banthia of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund said he doesn't expect a gold crash because central banks will eventually resume buying, but a sentiment-driven rally now seems unlikely.
- Abhishek Kumar of Sebi-registered SahajMoney recommends capping gold at 5-10% of portfolio allocation and using ETFs or mutual funds over physical metal for liquidity.
Why it matters: Retail investors who piled in during 2025's record $89 billion in gold ETF inflows now face steep losses, while physical silver holders like Rohit Talwar's family in Ahmedabad discovered jewellers won't buy back during volatility. The crash validates advisers' longstanding 5-10% portfolio cap on precious metals and exposes the dangers of chasing sentiment-driven rallies.
