Crypto PAC money pours into Texas primary runoffs, as prediction markets favor challengers
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- Protect Progress PAC aired 12 TV ads for Republican Menefee in the Texas 18th‑district primary, focusing on opponent Green’s anti‑Trump stance rather than crypto issues.
- Fellowship PAC, funded by Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage, spent $500,000 to support Republican Dan Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn in the Senate race, a day after Trump endorsed Paxton.
- Kalshi prediction market gave Menefee a 91% chance to beat Green and Paxton a 96% chance to defeat Cornyn, with total betting volume on the Senate race topping $16 million.
- Polymarket offered roughly even odds for Paxton and Cornyn, contrasting sharply with Kalshi’s strong favor for Paxton.
- Texas primary outcomes could decide which party controls Congress in 2027, as the 18th district and one Senate seat are pivotal under a Republican majority that has passed crypto‑friendly laws like the GENIUS Act.
Why it matters: Crypto‑backed candidates gain a funding edge, while rivals lose ground; the $500k PAC spend and $16 M betting volume boost Paxton’s odds, potentially shifting Senate control and influencing future crypto‑friendly legislation.
