Kalshi Hits $9B June Volume Amid Regulatory Battle
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Kalshi topped $9B in June trading volume, a monthly record, with World Cup knockout matches driving some of the highest activity on the platform, according to DefiLlama data.
- Canada's Round of 16 match against Morocco had generated over $48M in volume on Kalshi and over $26.8M on Polymarket at time of writing.
- The US team's Round of 16 match drew over $2.1M in volume on Kalshi's advancement market, with a comparable Polymarket market attracting around $1.6M as of Saturday.
- By March, nearly a dozen US states had moved against Kalshi and Polymarket, with some seeking to halt the markets and others pushing to bring them under existing gambling laws and state tax frameworks.
- CFTC Chair Michael Selig accused states of pursuing "illegal enforcement actions" against federally regulated exchanges, arguing Congress gave the agency sole authority over commodity derivatives markets including prediction markets, adding: "To any state that seeks to nullify federal law... we will see you in court."
- In June, casino operators, tribal organizations, and labor groups urged Congress to remove sports-event contracts from CFTC authority via an amendment to the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, arguing the contracts belong under state gambling oversight.
- On Friday, ESMA reminded firms that many event contracts may already fall under existing EU restrictions on binary options, saying regulation depends on a product's characteristics rather than the "event contract" label.
Why it matters: A $9B monthly volume signals prediction markets have crossed into mainstream financial relevance, but the simultaneous collision of state crackdowns, a defiant CFTC, and a congressional amendment push from casino and tribal coalitions means the platforms' legal status — derivatives or gambling — could be decided in court or on Capitol Hill this year, with tax treatment and oversight rights hanging in the balance.
