10-Year Yield Hits 4.42%, Bitcoin Holds $68K
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- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to about 4.42% on Thursday, up roughly 46 basis points since late February, with the Kobeissi Letter comparing the pace to the April 2025 'Liberation Day' surge.
- Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range between roughly $68,000 and $71,000, falling only 3.3% on the day to $68,400 while declining less sharply than equities and remaining up 3.9% since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began.
- QCP Capital described Bitcoin's price action as 'range-bound and headline-driven,' noting that options markets show continued demand for downside hedging but no signs of extreme panic.
- Net exchange outflows from Bitcoin indicate coins are being moved into storage rather than positioned for sale, and Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market has been rising during the uncertain period.
- Interest-rate futures have repriced to expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer, a reversal from late 2025 when markets priced in multiple cuts through 2026.
- Rising yields have been driven in part by oil prices and Middle East geopolitical tensions, as the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran approaches its fifth week following the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader.
Why it matters: If the 10-year Treasury yield pushes toward 4.5%, financial conditions would tighten further and Bitcoin would trade more on macroeconomic forces than crypto-specific developments, per the article's experts. The bond market has effectively replaced on-chain activity as the key signal for crypto traders.
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