Morgan Stanley Sees Sensex at 95,000 by Dec 2026
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- Morgan Stanley projects the Sensex will rally to 95,000 by December 2026, implying ~22% upside from the April 8 close of 77,563, calling Indian equities poised for a fresh bull run after one of their weakest phases of relative performance in decades.
- Morgan Stanley's base-case index target values the Sensex at 23.5x trailing earnings, slightly above the 25-year average of 22x.
- Adani Power is Overweight in the utilities sector, with its stock having surged 53% over the past 12 months and outperforming the MSCI India index by 50%.
- Trent is Overweight in the consumer discretionary space despite a 31% decline over the past year, underperforming the MSCI India index by 32%.
- Lenskart Solutions is Overweight, with the eyewear stock up 28% over the past year and ~17% on a YTD basis.
- Larsen & Toubro and Maruti Suzuki India are Overweight in industrials and autos respectively, with L&T up 14% and Maruti up 11% over the past 12 months.
- Varun Beverages, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, UltraTech Cement, and Prestige Estates round out the Overweight list across consumer staples, financials, materials, and real estate.
Why it matters: Morgan Stanley's 22% implied Sensex upside and willingness to go above the 25-year average PE multiple frames Indian large-caps as a contrarian rebound play, but the stock picks themselves are split: outperformers like Adani Power (+53%) and L&T (+14%) sit alongside deep underperformers like Trent (-31%) and Varun Beverages (-25%), signaling the bull case rests on a broad re-rating rather than momentum.
