Two Options for the Strait of Hormuz in a Decarbonized World
Why it matters: The Strait of Hormuz will continue to expose global energy and chemical supply chains to maritime vulnerability, even as 45% of internationally traded hydrogen moves by ship by 2050.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) assesses that the Strait of Hormuz handled approximately 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade and over 110 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2025, serving as the primary export route for several Gulf states.
- Reuters highlights the immediate impact of a Strait closure, noting disruptions to fertilizer, shipping, and food systems, not just fuel flows.
- CleanTechnica argues that the decarbonization narrative often oversimplifies the dissolution of chokepoint risks, emphasizing that a world reliant on imported e-fuels, ammonia, and methanol would still depend on vulnerable ports and shipping lanes.
- The Gulf states are incentivized to transition their export economies from oil and gas to ammonia, synthetic fuels, and hydrogen derivatives, leveraging existing infrastructure and expertise.
- IRENA's 1.5°C scenario forecasts that by 2050, about 25% of global hydrogen demand will be internationally traded (compared to 74% for oil today), with 45% moving by ship, predominantly as ammonia, and global ammonia demand rising to around 690 million tons per year.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and LNG trade, will remain a significant risk in a decarbonized world, even as the energy system shifts from fossil fuels to e-fuels and hydrogen derivatives. While the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) projects a lower overall reliance on cross-border energy trade by 2050 compared to today's oil system, the vulnerability of maritime shipping lanes and coastal industrial hubs will persist.
