IMF lifts Russia 2026 growth forecast to 1.1%
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- International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Russia from 0.8% to 1.1%.
- Ukraine's 2026 GDP growth forecast was cut from 4.5% to 2%.
- Iran's crisis could speed up the global green‑energy transition, which may erode Russian fossil‑fuel revenues over the coming years.
- Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project to China is becoming more attractive, offering a modest boost for Russia despite not being a game‑changer.
- Collin Meisel and Mathew Burrows now describe Russia’s war situation as “not great, but better than expected,” revising their 2025 assessment.
Why it matters: The IMF’s upgraded forecast gives Russia a modest economic cushion, while Ukraine’s downgraded outlook deepens its fiscal strain; a more attractive China gas pipeline could offset some loss from a future green‑energy transition that threatens Russian fossil‑fuel income and may shift global market dynamics.
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