Saylor and team overhaul Strategy's bitcoin metrics as bear market persists
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- Strategy replaced its gross BTC metrics with a net framework that subtracts $6.8 billion in out-of-the-money convertible debt and $15.5 billion in preferred stock from its $58.8 billion in combined bitcoin and USD reserves, arriving at a $36.6 billion net reserve figure backed by 843,775 BTC.
- The revised mNAV formula permanently anchors the equity issuance threshold at 1.0x, meaning new share issuance only adds BTC per share for existing investors when MSTR trades above net bitcoin per share after debt and preferred claims.
- Strategy's BTC Breakeven ARR sits at 3.22%, meaning bitcoin only needs to appreciate above that annual rate for the company to fund all interest and dividend obligations through BTC gains alone, in perpetuity.
- MSTR trades 84% below its November 2024 peak while bitcoin sits at roughly $65,000 — 50% below its all-time high — with the company's flagship STRC preferred trading near $85 and having not returned to its $100 par value since mid-May.
- Strategy added new bitcoin market metrics including premium to the 200-week moving average and the Fear and Greed Index, part of a broader pattern of repeated guidance refinements over the past year as the company contends with a bear market that began in October.
Why it matters: The new framework forces common shareholders to evaluate Strategy's position net of $22.3 billion in senior claims rather than against the headline $55.6 billion BTC reserve, with a permanent 1.0x mNAV floor tying future dilution directly to net bitcoin per share. With MSTR down 84% from peak and STRC itself trading 15% below par, the transparency push arrives at a moment when both common and preferred holders are underwater.
