Bitcoin Taps $63K as July Fed Rate-Hike Odds Hit 40%
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- Bitcoin rose above $63,000 on Friday's Juneteenth holiday but locked in a tight trading range after dropping to eight-day lows, showing no upside momentum.
- New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck an unusually hawkish tone in his first FOMC meeting, cutting the statement length considerably and dropping forward guidance rather than signaling accommodation to Trump's rate-cut demands.
- CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing nearly 40% odds of a rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting — a sharp reversal from prior rate-cut expectations.
- Iran appeared to be preparing for long-term control of the Strait of Hormuz, with Bloomberg reporting traffic "cannot cross" without its permission, despite a US-Iran MoU guaranteeing free transit for its 60-day term.
- WTI crude oil circled $75 per barrel, hitting its lowest levels since early March, as energy markets priced in Hormuz supply normalization.
- Trader Rekt Capital warned that a "Black Swan event" tends to occur in the second half of Bitcoin bear markets, suggesting the true test for bulls is still ahead.
Why it matters: Markets just flipped from pricing Fed rate cuts to pricing a near 40% chance of a July rate hike after Warsh's hawkish debut — a stark policy reversal that removes the liquidity tailwind crypto bulls were counting on. Layered on top, Iran's apparent push for long-term Hormuz control despite a 60-day transit MoU keeps an energy-shock premium on the table, with WTI already sitting near its lowest since early March. Bitcoin bulls now face a tighter monetary backdrop with no clear dovish catalyst in sight.
