Bitcoin’s bullish momentum accelerates but topping $78K remains a challenge
Why it matters: Bitcoin's rally is fragile, facing significant overhead resistance and a lack of conviction from key market players.
- Bitcoin's price surged to a four-week high, reaching $73,000, but faces a psychological hurdle at $76,000, the average cost basis for major corporate holders like Strategy.
- Derivatives and onchain data reveal a lack of bullish conviction, with put options trading at a 10% premium and 43% of Bitcoin holders remaining at a loss, up from 30% when BTC was at $90,000.
- Bitcoin miners are experiencing record-low profits due to surging AI energy demand and declining blockchain registry demand, forcing major listed firms to offload BTC and pivot to more profitable AI computing sectors.
- Professional traders are demanding downside protection, as evidenced by the premium on put options and stagnant bullish BTC futures, suggesting fears of further price declines and potential sell pressure from investors exiting loss-making positions.
Despite Bitcoin's recent rally to a four-week high, a significant lack of bullish conviction persists among traders, with 43% of holders still at a loss and derivatives data showing a preference for downside protection. This cautious sentiment is further exacerbated by struggling Bitcoin miners, who are increasingly offloading BTC and pivoting to AI computing due to soaring energy costs and declining profitability.
