Gold, silver import duty up 9% as ETF premiums rise
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- Government raised import duty on gold and silver by about 9% (including cess) and re‑classified silver imports from “free” to “restricted,” tightening gold import controls.
- Chirag Mehta observed domestic gold prices rose 5‑6% the day after the duty hike announcement, less than the 9% duty, and expects full price transmission over the coming weeks as fresh imports are needed.
- Manav Modi said gold is expected to trade steadily for a few weeks and remains bullish over a one‑year horizon with a price target around $6,000.
- Silver ETFs could see wider premiums as supply tightens if demand spikes, with past episodes in Oct 2025 and Jan 2026 showing premiums up to 12% above NAV.
- Supply outlook remains stable because recent import volumes have been strong and existing inventories are high, reducing immediate shortage risk unless panic buying occurs.
Why it matters: Domestic investors face higher costs for gold and silver, while ETF holders risk higher premiums; importers see reduced margins as duty adds 9% to prices, tightening supply if demand spikes.
