Bitcoin supply in profit heads to ‘true bear market’ levels
Why it matters: Bitcoin's current metrics suggest a potential market bottom or further downside, impacting over 11 million BTC holders.
- CryptoQuant analyst 'Darkfost' indicates that 11.2 million Bitcoin are currently in profit, approaching the 9 million BTC low seen in the previous bear market.
- Glassnode data confirms that 8.2 million Bitcoin are at a loss, a level not seen since late 2022, though still below the 10.6 million BTC loss recorded in the last bear market.
- Bitrue exchange's Andri Fauzan Adziima argues that current data points to 'increasing market stress' and an 'early/mid-bear transition' with a potential structural bottom near $55,000, rather than immediate undervaluation.
- Fidelity notes that Bitcoin's current 52% drawdown from its all-time high is 'less dramatic' than previous bear markets, which saw 77% to 84% declines.
- Bitcoin author Timothy Peterson suggests Bitcoin struggles when the US dollar is strong and the Chinese yuan is weak, due to tighter global liquidity, a trend he expects to continue until US interest rates fall in late 2026 or 2027.
- Riot, a Bitcoin miner, sold 3,778 BTC during Q1 amid broader market pressure, as reported by Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin's supply in profit is nearing 'true bear market' levels, with 11.2 million BTC in profit and 8.2 million BTC at a loss, according to CryptoQuant and Glassnode data. While some analysts see this as a sign of undervaluation and a potential market bottom, others, like Bitrue's Andri Fauzan Adziima, interpret it as increasing market stress, suggesting more downside or consolidation before a full reset.
