Gold Rises 1.4% as Weak Jobs Data Cuts Fed Hike Odds
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- Gold rose 1.4% Friday to ~$4,182.28/oz, on track for a 2.3% weekly gain — its first weekly rise in five weeks (since late May), with front-month U.S. gold futures up 1.5% intraday
- June nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000 jobs added, well below the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus and May's downwardly revised 129,000, per Thursday's report
- Markets are now pricing a 53.5% chance of a Fed rate hike of at least 25 bps in September, down from roughly 65% before the jobs release, according to the CME's FedWatch tool
- OCBC strategists shifted their tone to "cautiously constructive" on gold, arguing softer payrolls reduce "hawkish tail risk" but warning a durable recovery needs real yields to ease more decisively, ETF demand to stabilize, and the Fed to step back from hawkish rhetoric
- Silver, platinum, and palladium rallied alongside gold — spot silver jumped 2.9% to $62.77 (on track for a ~6.7% weekly gain), platinum rose 2.8% to $1,660.10, and palladium gained 1% to $1,280.09
- Gold remains roughly 22% below its January all-time high of over $5,300 and posted its worst quarter in 13 years in the three months to June, after surging 66% across 2025
Why it matters: The June payrolls miss of 57,000 — less than half the 115,000 consensus — pulled September Fed hike odds down 11.5 percentage points to 53.5%, directly easing the hawkish-rate headwind that has dragged gold 22% off its January peak and produced its worst quarter in 13 years.
