Kalshi traders expect this week's jobs report will disappoint Wall Street outlook
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- Kalshi traders are pricing in a weaker June jobs report than the Dow Jones consensus of 118,000 nonfarm payrolls, assigning less than 60% odds of job growth exceeding 100,000 and roughly 42% odds of crossing 125,000
- Dow Jones consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to fall sharply from May's 172,000, but Kalshi traders see the final number coming in even lower — a reversal from May, when Kalshi traders expected the report to top the forecast
- Kalshi traders gave only 14.2% odds that GDP growth would land between 2.6% and 3% this year, undercutting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's claim that the U.S. economy can hit 3% growth
- Kalshi traders give a 71% chance the unemployment rate will rise above 4.2% but only a 30% probability it exceeds the current 4.3% rate, closely matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast
- Wall Street economists expect hourly earnings to rise 3.5% year-over-year (up from May's 3.4%) and 0.3% month-over-month, roughly in line with the prior month
Why it matters: Kalshi's bearish tilt on Friday's payrolls number — sub-60% odds of even 100,000 jobs versus a Dow Jones consensus of 118,000 — means traders are positioning for a downside surprise that could intensify pressure on the Fed to cut rates. The divergence matters because May's report came in at 172,000, more than double the prior consensus, and Kalshi correctly foresaw that beat; the same traders are now saying this time the consensus is too optimistic.
