Revenge of the TSX: How the Canadian stock market quietly became a world beater
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- Toronto Stock Exchange gained nearly 55% over two years on an inflation-adjusted basis, ranking alongside the dot-com era and post-2009 recovery as one of history's best two-year rallies, and nearly doubling the S&P 500's growth over the same window.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank shares climbed 120%+ in two years after the bank refocused on Canada following US$3.1-billion in U.S. money-laundering fines and an asset cap, selling its Charles Schwab stake to fund buybacks and reinvest in the domestic market.
- BlackBerry shares nearly quintupled over two years as its QNX software — now embedded in 275 million cars — expanded into robots, medical devices, and factory applications beyond its smartphone legacy.
- Magna International shares rose 50%+ from two years ago after the auto-parts supplier — whose parts cross the U.S. border up to eight times per vehicle — recouped margins by cutting expenses and passing tariff costs to customers despite Trump's initial threats.
- Bombardier shares tripled in two years after Trump backed down from threats to decertify its Global Express jets and impose 50% tariffs on Canadian-made aircraft, capitalizing instead on surging private aviation demand and a generational aerospace and defense spending boom.
- The rally defies a grim macro backdrop: a four-year housing bust, uncertain North American free trade (roughly 25% of Canadian GDP), and immigration-driven growth cuts — prompting the source to concede that 'stock riches do not fix what ails us.'
Why it matters: Investors fixated on AI hyperscalers or writing off Canada missed a ~55% inflation-adjusted two-year TSX rally that nearly doubled the S&P 500 — with individual names like BlackBerry and Bombardier tripling or better. The market is rewarding corporate adaptation to tariffs and trade disruption, but the disconnect between record equity returns and Canada's housing bust, trade dependence, and immigration cuts means the rally enriches shareholders without resolving the underlying economic vulnerabilities.
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