2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions by model that's nailed 17 majors
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- 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship tees off Thursday at 8:10 a.m. ET at TPC Southwind in Memphis with the top 70 in FedEx Cup standings; the top 50 advance from the no-cut event, which carries a $20 million purse and quadrupled points.
- Scottie Scheffler is the +480 favorite via FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by Rory McIlroy (+1300), Xander Schauffele (+1800), and Tommy Fleetwood (+2000); Scheffler and McIlroy are paired for a 9:30 a.m. ET start.
- SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the field 10,000 times and has correctly called 17 majors entering the weekend — including the 2026 Masters (its fifth in a row), the 2025 PGA Championship, and the 2025 Open Championship.
- Sam Burns (+2200) emerges as the model's top-3 contender after finishing T7 or better at the Masters, Memorial, U.S. Open, and Open Championship; he ranks 12th on tour in strokes gained: total and third in strokes gained: putting.
- Xander Schauffele, listed at +1800, doesn't crack the model's top 10 — a surprise given his T2 finish at this event in 2024, but the model weighs that he hasn't finished inside the top 20 in any of his three other TPC Southwind appearances.
- A longshot above +3000 is also being flagged by the model for a strong leaderboard run, with the specific pick gated behind SportsLine's membership.
Why it matters: With quadruple FedEx Cup points on the line and only the top 50 advancing to next week's BMW Championship, bettors face amplified stakes — a hot week vaults a golfer up the standings while a cold one knocks them out entirely. SportsLine's 17-major track record gives its contrarian calls — fading Schauffele at +1800, elevating Burns at +2200 — real credibility over the standard odds sheet.
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