Novig wins CFTC approval in sports prediction market
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- Novig received CFTC approval Tuesday to operate as a federally regulated, sports-focused designated contract market, with founder Jacob Fortinsky pitching a peer-to-peer model that he said makes "sportsbooks obsolete" and cuts out the middle man.
- ProphetX had its DCM and derivatives clearing organization applications approved a week earlier, with CEO Dean Sisun saying the approval positions it to become the first sports-native direct-clearing prediction market in the US.
- Novig raised a $75 million Series B in February led by Pantera Capital — Forbes reported the round valued the company at $500 million — bringing total capital raised to more than $105 million, with the company reporting $5 billion in cumulative volume and $8 billion annualized.
- Kalshi set a new daily trading volume record of $1.2 billion Saturday and posted $3.38 billion over the weekend (up 35% month over month), per Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley, dwarfing Polymarket's $1.41 billion and Robinhood's Rothera exchange at $131.4 million.
- DraftKings Predictions saw total customers grow over 200% versus the prior weekend, driven by the NBA Finals and the start of the World Cup, the company said in a news release.
- Betr acquired National Futures Association-registered Ascent Capital Management to accelerate its launch of Polymarket-powered prediction markets, with founder Joey Levy pitching a "super app" combining picks, sportsbook, casino, arcade and prediction markets.
- The CFTC filed suit this week against New Mexico to defend federal oversight of prediction markets while proposing rules that would generally allow sports event contracts but restrict categories tied to injuries, officiating decisions, high school sports, fights, war and terrorism.
Why it matters: The CFTC is now handing out sports-focused DCM licenses to multiple startups in quick succession, but Kalshi's $3.38 billion weekend volume — roughly 25 times Rothera's — shows liquidity is concentrating at the incumbent, meaning Novig and ProphetX must build differentiated order books before the sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings) and brokerages (Robinhood, Crypto.com) lock in distribution at scale.
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