Vijay Kedia Maps the Repeating Market Cycle
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Vijay Kedia posted on X on 26 June 2026 outlining a market cycle pattern — "Opportunity > Optimism > Narrative > Euphoria > Correction > New Opportunity" — that he says repeats across asset classes even as themes and narratives change.
- Kedia argued financial assets don't move in a straight line but in rotation, with no single class — equity, real estate, gold, cryptocurrencies, commodities, or technology — remaining the market favourite forever.
- Indian equities staged a sharp post-COVID recovery and became one of the world's best-performing major markets between 2021 and September 2024, with many stocks delivering multibagger returns, Kedia noted.
- Kedia acknowledged the "India being the world's fastest-growing major economy" narrative was true but warned valuations grew richer, optimism turned to euphoria, and investors needed to moderate return expectations.
- Market leadership shifted across different asset classes multiple times over the past few years rather than staying concentrated in equities, according to Kedia's post.
- Kedia advised investors to focus on valuations, fundamentals, and an asset's position in its broader cycle rather than chasing headlines or prevailing narratives.
Why it matters: Kedia's framework directly challenges investors who rode the 2021–September 2024 Indian equity rally to reassess whether they recognize the euphoria-to-correction shift already underway, with market leadership rotating beyond equities. His call to judge by valuation and cycle position rather than narrative is a pointed warning to late entrants still anchored to the "fastest-growing economy" story.
