Bitcoin Bear Cycle Over: CryptoQuant CEO
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- Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, posted on X that "The Bitcoin bear cycle is over" after the Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator flipped positive for the first time since early October.
- The indicator rose to 0.042 as of August 26, entering its "bull" bracket after hitting an "extreme bear" low of -1.244 on February 5 when BTC/USD bottomed at $60,000.
- The metric is derived from the P&L Index — composed of MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR profitability measures — and tracks its distance from the 365-day moving average, with readings above zero signaling bullish phases.
- Ki noted the same indicator correctly called the end of the previous bear market in early 2023, citing that as historical precedent for the current signal.
- RSI recovery patterns also mirror those seen at the end of 2022, the article reports, reinforcing a convergence of bullish on-chain and technical signals.
- Consensus is not unanimous: trader Rekt Capital called the August monthly close "pivotal," arguing BTC must break a downward-sloping resistance trend line in place since October last year.
- Cointelegraph previously reported on concerns about insufficient demand and multiple liquidity hurdles stacked immediately above spot price, cautioning against premature conviction.
Why it matters: This is the first bull signal from CryptoQuant's composite profitability indicator in ten months, and its track record — calling the early 2023 bottom — gives it weight with macro-focused traders. But the source itself surfaces pushback: Rekt Capital says a resistance break hasn't happened yet, and prior Cointelegraph reporting flagged demand weakness, meaning the indicator's signal clashes with the price action's failure to reclaim key levels above spot.
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