Meta's Capex Could Top $200B in 2027
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Meta reports second-quarter earnings Wednesday afternoon, with investors focused on its capital expenditures plan for the remainder of 2026 and 2027.
- Alphabet spooked investors the prior week by warning it intends to spend far more than expected, raising the bar for Big Tech AI infrastructure commitments.
- Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Black raised his Meta capex estimate to roughly $210–$215 billion in 2027 and ~$265 billion in 2028, with buy-side expectations now in the 'low-to-mid $200bn range.'
- Meta's current 2026 capex guidance of $125–$145 billion is now likely to be revised higher, per Black, who wrote that 'the chorus for Meta to rein in its spending may only grow louder.'
- Meta's stock has been 'dead money for more than a year,' per the report, coinciding with massive annual capex increases visible in Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace charts.
- Generative AI monetization signals on Instagram and Facebook 'have so far been muted,' Black wrote, making the spending harder to justify.
- Black flagged that a third-party cloud business could add a direct revenue stream against assets investors currently value largely through indirect ad and engagement benefits.
Why it matters: Meta's stock has lagged for over a year as capex has ballooned, and Alphabet's surprise capex warning last week reset the floor for what investors will tolerate. If Meta raises its $125–$145 billion 2026 guide on Wednesday and confirms the $200B-plus trajectory Black projects, the 'dead money' tag could harden into a sustained underperformance story.
