XOM Stock Up 34% YTD on Iran War, Drops 5% on Peace Hopes
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- XOM stock climbed more than 34% YTD to roughly $162 on Iran war-driven supply fears, but then plunged 5% on April 1 — its worst single-day drop in over a year — after reports the conflict could end soon.
- Strait of Hormuz disruption, threatening a chokepoint that normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows, pushed Brent crude above $100 and prompted the U.S. DFC to launch a $20 billion maritime reinsurance program to get tankers moving.
- Exxon's Q4 results showed EPS of $1.71 versus $1.68 consensus, but net income fell 14% to $6.5 billion and net cash flow deteriorated 34% to -$12.51 billion, even as operating cash flow rose 32% sequentially to $51.97 billion.
- Exxon's production hit 5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in Q4 (up from 4.7M in Q3), with the Permian Basin setting a record 1.8 million boe/day and Guyana's Yellowtail project — online ahead of schedule — lifting the country to 875,000 gross barrels per day.
- U.S. licenses allowing American companies to produce crude and natural gas in Venezuela add a second growth lever, with the government pushing for up to $100 billion in energy-firm investment to rebuild the country's oil industry under new foreign-investor-friendly reforms.
- Analyst targets are split: Bernstein's Bob Brackett raised his price target to $195 (Outperform, ~20% upside), but the broader consensus of 28 analysts averages just $155.93 (Moderate Buy), implying roughly 4% downside from the current $162 price.
Why it matters: The ~25% gap between Bernstein's bullish $195 target and the 28-analyst consensus of $155.93 reveals the market is paying a war premium that most analysts don't endorse — at $162, XOM trades at a trailing P/E of 23x (above sector median), meaning any Hormuz deescalation would deflate the stock even with strong production and cash flow underneath.
