Next Climate Divide: Who Can Afford to Stay Cool
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- Extreme heat kills about 2,000 people a year in the US, and Europe's June heat dome killed more than 1,300 people in less than two weeks.
- The US program that helps low-income families pay home energy bills only reaches about one in six eligible families, which Wolfe ties to political priorities rather than economic capacity.
- The Lancet estimates hundreds of thousands already die from heat each year, with the burden projected to grow most rapidly in south Asia and Africa.
- During a visit to India, Wolfe found government officials understood what needed doing — expanding electricity, improving housing, increasing cooling access — but lacked the resources to execute.
- Shipping air conditioners to developing countries won't work because their electric grids can't support them, Wolfe argues, calling instead for Western financing of cheaper, more stable clean energy infrastructure.
- Wolfe frames the financing shortfall as a strategic choice, warning that if the US and Europe don't become meaningful partners, other countries will fill the vacuum and expand their economic and geopolitical ties across the developing world.
- The next climate divide, per Wolfe, will be drawn between countries that had the resources to adapt and those that did not — not between the largest and smallest emitters.
Why it matters: Wolfe recasts climate adaptation as a geopolitical contest: without Western financing for cooling infrastructure in the global south, other powers will fill the vacuum and lock in influence across the developing world. Domestically, US energy assistance already reaches only about one in six eligible families, showing the adaptation gap is acute before global commitments even enter the picture.
