Asia Mixed, Oil Up as Traders Await US July Jobs Data
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- Asia-Pacific equities diverged ahead of the U.S. jobs data — Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.5% and South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.5% for a seventh straight weekly decline (down 5.1%), while China's CSI 300 rose 0.8% after July exports climbed 23.9% year-on-year.
- U.S. futures were little changed (Nasdaq +0.1%, S&P 500 flat) with traders pricing a 54% chance of a Fed rate hike next month; July payrolls are forecast at 80,000 versus June's 57,000 gain, with unemployment steady at 4.2%.
- JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli warned a strong print would be "good news is bad news," reinforcing higher-for-longer rate pricing and upward pressure on Treasury yields.
- Brent crude gained 1.5% to $83.78 a barrel after Saudi Arabia warned of imminent coordinated attacks by Yemen's Houthis and Iran-backed Iraqi militias; oil remains down 7% on the week and well off its $102 peak two weeks ago.
- Iran is reviewing a preliminary bill that would bar U.S., Israeli and other "hostile" vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with fines of up to 20% of a ship's cargo value for violators.
- The dollar held at 158.38 yen after breaking above its 200-day average overnight, with last week's historic joint Japan-U.S. currency intervention still fresh; the jobs report could decide whether Tokyo must defend the level again.
- Treasury yields rose overnight — the 2-year at 4.2496% (+7 bps) and the 10-year at 4.6821% (+5 bps) — while spot gold climbed 0.7% to $4,268 an ounce and silver gained 1.3% to $62.29.
Why it matters: Friday's payrolls print will decide whether the Fed moves next month, with futures already pricing near 50/50 and JPMorgan flagging that any upside surprise locks in higher-for-longer rates — pressuring the yen just days after Japan and the U.S. staged a historic joint intervention. Meanwhile, Iran's draft bill to fine hostile Strait of Hormuz transits up to 20% of cargo value introduces a fresh shipping risk that could re-energize oil's recent slide.
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