Microsoft shares hit 9‑year oversold as AI hype fades
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- Microsoft fell 2.5% on Friday to close at its lowest price since April 8 2025, extending a six‑month losing streak that has erased 31.1% of its value.
- Microsoft’s relative strength index dropped to 22.26, the lowest closing reading since Aug 25 2015, marking the most oversold technical condition in nine years.
- Ben Reitzes of Melius Research warned that Microsoft is “really losing the AI narrative,” citing reliance on Anthropic’s technology as a “fox in the henhouse.”
- Ishan Majumdar of Baptista Research noted that while the Anthropic partnership aligns with Microsoft’s integration‑first strategy, it creates a perception challenge versus more vertically integrated competitors.
- Office products such as Word and Excel are under pressure from AI‑driven seat‑reduction trends, threatening the traditional per‑seat revenue model.
- Microsoft has lost 9.2% of its share price in March alone, with the stock falling in 12 of the past 14 sessions.
Why it matters: Investors see the oversold technical signal as a potential bounce, but the underlying concerns about Microsoft’s AI strategy and reliance on external models could dampen demand for its core Office suite, hurting revenue and shareholders. The stock’s steep decline also pressures fund managers and index trackers that hold large Microsoft positions, potentially prompting rebalancing.
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