Russia, China and the US – the global winners and losers of the Iran war
Why it matters: The Iran war is redrawing global economic power, creating new winners and losers in the energy market.
- Russia is emerging as a major winner, with crude oil sales to India jumping 50% as Washington relaxes rules, potentially earning Moscow an additional $5 billion by March's end and its biggest fuel revenue year since 2022.
- Norway and Canada are positioned to gain as customers seek alternative energy sources, with Canada's Energy Minister Tim Hodgson touting his nation as a "stable, reliable, predictable, values-based producer of energy," though Canada's production increase capacity is questioned.
- The US, UK, and Europe are identified as losers, facing rising heating oil bills and economic disruption, despite some American oil producers potentially making tens of billions in extra revenue, as the US is not a net winner due to exposure to Middle East disruptions like ExxonMobil's operations in Qatar.
- Gulf producers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia are hard hit by Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure and a de facto blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, as Tehran targets America's allies.
- Indonesia could see a "tantalising opportunity" as some countries increase coal usage, driving up the price of that fuel.
The Iran war is creating a stark global divide between economic winners and losers, with oil and gas producers like Russia, Norway, and Canada poised to benefit significantly from soaring energy prices and disrupted Middle Eastern supply routes. Conversely, major consumers such as the US, UK, and Europe face substantial financial fallout, despite some American producers seeing increased revenues, as the conflict exposes vulnerabilities in global energy infrastructure and supply chains.
